A multidimensional feasibility evaluation of low-carbon scenarios

Abstract Long-term mitigation scenarios developed by integrated assessment models underpin major aspects of recent IPCC reports and have been critical to identify the system transformations that are required meet stringent climate goals. However, they criticized for proposing pathways may prove challenging implement in real world failing capture social institutional challenges transition. There is a growing interest assess feasibility these scenarios, but past research has mostly focused on theoretical considerations. This paper proposes novel versatile multidimensional framework allows evaluating comparing decarbonization systematically quantifying concerns across geophysical, technological, economic, socio-cultural dimensions. enables timing, disruptiveness scale concerns, trade-offs different As first implementation proposed framework, we map 1.5 °C Special Report scenarios. We select 24 quantitative indicators propose thresholds based insights from an extensive analysis literature empirical data. Our is, however, flexible evaluations or aggregation rules. analyses show constraints, which often not accounted key drivers concerns. Moreover, clear intertemporal trade-off, with early being more disruptive preventing higher persistent produced postponed action later century.